---
title: "41 Decision making Quotes By Ray Dalio"
description: "Quotes on decision making by Ray Dalio, focusing on principles, betting mindset, and avoiding ego."
image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/dc1/ray-dalio-299_quote_use-evidence-based-decision-making-tools_1804570.jpg"
---

> [“Use evidence-based decision-making tools.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/use-evidence-based-decision-making-tools/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/dc1/ray-dalio-299_quote_use-evidence-based-decision-making-tools_1804570.jpg)

> [“Systemize your decision making.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/systemize-your-decision-making/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/8e2/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_systemize-your-decision-making-2250807_2250807.jpg)

> [“One of the most important decisions you can make is who you ask questions of. Make”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/one-of-the-most-important-decisions-you-can-make-is-who-you-ask/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3fe/ray-dalio-299_ask-questions_one-of-the-most-important-decisions-you_1125223.jpg)

> [“The best way to make great decisions is to know how to triangulate with other, more knowledgeable people.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/the-best-way-to-make-great-decisions-is-to-know-how-to-triangulate/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/250/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_the-best-way-to-make-great-decisions-is_2443664.jpg)

> [“If I can reconcile my emotions with my logic and only act when they are aligned, I make better decisions.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/if-i-can-reconcile-my-emotions-with-my-logic-and-only-act-when-they/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/1b5/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_if-i-can-reconcile-my-emotions-with-my-l_2514295.jpg)

> [“Some decisions are best made after acquiring more information; some are best made immediately.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/some-decisions-are-best-made-after-acquiring-more-information-some/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ca8/ray-dalio-299_data_some-decisions-are-best-made-after-acqui_1618966.jpg)

> [“Some decisions you should make yourself and some you should delegate to someone more believable.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/some-decisions-you-should-make-yourself-and-some-you-should-delegate/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4d6/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_some-decisions-you-should-make-yourself_3159185.jpg)

> [“decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/decision-making-is-a-two-step-process-first-learning-and-then-deciding/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/cad/ray-dalio-299_deciding_decision-making-is-a-two-step-process-fi_400004.jpg)

> [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to-2/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3e2/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note_487650.jpg)

> [“Successful organizations have cultures in which evidence-based decision making is the norm rather than the exception.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/successful-organizations-have-cultures-in-which-evidence-based/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/e0b/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_successful-organizations-have-cultures-i_1806735.jpg)

> [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision. 2. Write the criteria down as…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/05a/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note_6396.jpg)

> [“there are two broad approaches to decision making: evidence/logic-based (which comes from the higher- level brain) and subconscious/emotion-based (which comes from the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/there-are-two-broad-approaches-to-decision-making-evidence-logic/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/02c/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_there-are-two-broad-approaches-to-decisi_3184713.jpg)

> [“Experience taught me how invaluable it is to reflect on and write down my decision-making criteria whenever I made a decision, so…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/experience-taught-me-how-invaluable-it-is-to-reflect-on-and-write/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/899/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_experience-taught-me-how-invaluable-it-i_2222751.jpg)

> [“By developing a partnership with your computer alter ego in which you teach each other and each do what you do best,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/by-developing-a-partnership-with-your-computer-alter-ego-in-which-you/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/2b4/ray-dalio-299_alter-ego_by-developing-a-partnership-with-your-co_761020.jpg)

> [“People who run companies are faced with important choices every day. How they make those choices determines the character of the company,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/people-who-run-companies-are-faced-with-important-choices-every-day/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/e66/ray-dalio-299_business_people-who-run-companies-are-faced-with_1785894.jpg)

> [“you need to weigh first-order consequences against second- and third-order consequences, and base your decisions not just on near-term results but on…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/you-need-to-weigh-first-order-consequences-against-second-and-third/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/f67/ray-dalio-299_consequences_you-need-to-weigh-first-order-consequenc_3201155.jpg)

> [When you're faced with a choice, you have one of three choices that you can have. You can have those with power…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/when-you-re-faced-with-a-choice-you-have-one-of-three-choices-that/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/710/ray-dalio-299_believability_when-you-re-faced-with-a-choice-you-have_249778.jpg)

> [“have found triangulating with highly believable people who are willing to have thoughtful disagreements has never failed to enhance my learning and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/have-found-triangulating-with-highly-believable-people-who-are/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/e44/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_have-found-triangulating-with-highly-bel_468380.jpg)

> [“I believe one of the most valuable things you can do to improve your decision making is to think through your principles…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-believe-one-of-the-most-valuable-things-you-can-do-to-improve-your/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/57f/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_i-believe-one-of-the-most-valuable-thing_2184807.jpg)

> [“Every leader must decide between 1) getting rid of liked but incapable people to achieve their goals and 2) keeping the nice…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/every-leader-must-decide-between-1-getting-rid-of-liked-but-incapable/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/296/ray-dalio-299_achieving-goals_every-leader-must-decide-between-1-getti_2257096.jpg)

> [“Learning how to make decisions in the best possible way and learning to have the courage to make them comes from a)…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/learning-how-to-make-decisions-in-the-best-possible-way-and-learning/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/0f8/ray-dalio-299_capable_learning-how-to-make-decisions-in-the-be_331380.jpg)

> [“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a-probability-and-a-reward-for/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/310/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a_223354.jpg)

> [“Specifying our investment decision-making criteria in algorithms and running historical data through them, or specifying our work principles in algorithms and using…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/specifying-our-investment-decision-making-criteria-in-algorithms-and/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/87e/ray-dalio-299_complicated_specifying-our-investment-decision-makin_2619336.jpg)

> [“By developing a partnership with your computer alter ego in which you teach each other and each do what you do best,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/by-developing-a-partnership-with-your-computer-alter-ego-in-which-you-2/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/06f/ray-dalio-299_computers_by-developing-a-partnership-with-your-co_854306.jpg)

> [“An idea meritocracy requires people to do three things: 1) Put their honest thoughts on the table for everyone to see, 2)…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/an-idea-meritocracy-requires-people-to-do-three-things-1-put-their/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/6d8/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_an-idea-meritocracy-requires-people-to-d_2773236.jpg)

> [“It’ll be decades—and maybe never—before the computer can replicate many of the things that the brain can do in terms of imagination,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/it-ll-be-decades-and-maybe-never-before-the-computer-can-replicate/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/172/ray-dalio-299_computers_it-ll-be-decades-and-maybe-never-before_269392.jpg)

> [To have an idea meritocracy, one needs to do three things. First, they have to put their honest thoughts on the table,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/to-have-an-idea-meritocracy-one-needs-to-do-three-things-first-they/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/efb/ray-dalio-299_decision_to-have-an-idea-meritocracy-one-needs-to_3220356.jpg)

> [“I believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot and fail well. By failing…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-believe-that-the-key-to-success-lies-in-knowing-how-to-both-strive/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/5aa/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_i-believe-that-the-key-to-success-lies-i_32069.jpg)

> [“The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/the-two-biggest-barriers-to-good-decision-making-are-your-ego-and/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/989/ray-dalio-299_barriers_the-two-biggest-barriers-to-good-decisio_432059.jpg)

> [“Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions,”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/failing-to-consider-second-and-third-order-consequences-is-the-cause/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/b9a/ray-dalio-299_bad-decisions_failing-to-consider-second-and-third-ord_2276377.jpg)

> [“Bad outcomes don’t just happen; they occur because specific people make, or fail to make, specific decisions”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/bad-outcomes-don-t-just-happen-they-occur-because-specific-people/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/265/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_bad-outcomes-don-t-just-happen-they-occu_3181159.jpg)

> [“The best way to make great decisions is to know how to triangulate with other, more knowledgeable people. So be discerning about…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/the-best-way-to-make-great-decisions-is-to-know-how-to-triangulate-2/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/bef/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_the-best-way-to-make-great-decisions-is_2731734.jpg)

> [“Remember that the quality of the life you get will depend largely on the quality of the decisions that you make as…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/remember-that-the-quality-of-the-life-you-get-will-depend-largely-on/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/397/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_remember-that-the-quality-of-the-life-yo_2126160.jpg)

> [“Whatever circumstances life brings you, you will be more likely to succeed and find happiness if you take responsibility for making your…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/whatever-circumstances-life-brings-you-you-will-be-more-likely-to/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/935/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_whatever-circumstances-life-brings-you-y_725972.jpg)

> [“there are some universal rules for good decision making. They start with: 5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/there-are-some-universal-rules-for-good-decision-making-they-start/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/226/ray-dalio-299_deciding_there-are-some-universal-rules-for-good_2745859.jpg)

> [“Holding wrong opinions in one’s head and making bad decisions based on them instead of having thoughtful disagreements is one of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/holding-wrong-opinions-in-one-s-head-and-making-bad-decisions-based/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7fe/ray-dalio-299_bad-decisions_holding-wrong-opinions-in-one-s-head-and_2711305.jpg)

> [“Over the course of our lives, we make millions and millions of decisions that are essentially bets, some large and some small.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/over-the-course-of-our-lives-we-make-millions-and-millions-of/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/fe8/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_over-the-course-of-our-lives-we-make-mil_914208.jpg)

> [“people who have common sense, imagination, and determination, who know what they value and what they want, and who also use computers,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/people-who-have-common-sense-imagination-and-determination-who-know/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/844/ray-dalio-299_common-sense_people-who-have-common-sense-imagination_457804.jpg)

> [“Using principles is a way of both simplifying and improving your decision making. While it might seem obvious to you by now,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/using-principles-is-a-way-of-both-simplifying-and-improving-your/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/95e/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_using-principles-is-a-way-of-both-simpli_1409705.jpg)

> [“If ever you find yourself about to make a decision (especially a big decision) in one of these areas without consulting others,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/if-ever-you-find-yourself-about-to-make-a-decision-especially-a-big/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

[Image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7b5/ray-dalio-299_choice_if-ever-you-find-yourself-about-to-make_2467760.jpg)

## Other authors on Decision making

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- [ ![](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/uploads/sms4s/authors/processed/b001/author-anurag-prakash-ray-38.jpg) Anurag Prakash Ray 19 quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/anurag-prakash-ray/)
- [ ![](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/uploads/sms4s/authors/processed/b001/author-ritu-ghatourey-5.jpg) Ritu Ghatourey 16 quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/ritu-ghatourey/)
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- [Israelmore Ayivor 15 quotes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/israelmore-ayivor/)
- [ ![](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/uploads/sms4s/authors/processed/b005/author-barack-obama-16275.jpg) Barack Obama 14 quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/barack-obama/)
- [Spencer Fraseur 11 quotes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/spencer-fraseur/)

## More by Ray Dalio

> [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision. 2. Write the criteria down as a principle.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“Having a process that ensures problems are brought to the surface, and their root causes diagnosed, assures that continual improvements occur.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/having-a-process-that-ensures-problems-are-brought-to-the-surface-and/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“If you can’t successfully do something, don’t think you can tell others how it should be done”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/if-you-can-t-successfully-do-something-don-t-think-you-can-tell/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“Remember that a good plan should resemble a movie script.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/remember-that-a-good-plan-should-resemble-a-movie-script/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“I believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot and fail well. By failing well, I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-believe-that-the-key-to-success-lies-in-knowing-how-to-both-strive/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [I'm scared of one man, one vote because it suggests that everybody has an equal ability at making decisions, and I think that's dangerous.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-m-scared-of-one-man-one-vote-because-it-suggests-that-everybody-has/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“A manager’s ability to recognize when outcomes are inconsistent with goals and then modify designs and assemble people to rectify them makes all the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/a-manager-s-ability-to-recognize-when-outcomes-are-inconsistent-with/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“So I learned to be radically open-minded to allow others to point out what I might be missing.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/so-i-learned-to-be-radically-open-minded-to-allow-others-to-point-out/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“During those terrible days after 9/11, when the whole country was being whipsawed by emotion, or the weeks between September 19 and October 10,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/during-those-terrible-days-after-9-11-when-the-whole-country-was/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“is more effective to train that subconscious, emotional you the same way you would teach a child to behave”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/is-more-effective-to-train-that-subconscious-emotional-you-the-same/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [I think that the first thing is you should have a strategic asset allocation mix that assumes that you don't know what the future…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-think-that-the-first-thing-is-you-should-have-a-strategic-asset/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [Life is like a game where you seek to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving your goals. You get better…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/life-is-like-a-game-where-you-seek-to-overcome-the-obstacles-that/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“when we look down on ourselves through the eyes of nature we are of absolutely no significance. It is a reality that each one…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/when-we-look-down-on-ourselves-through-the-eyes-of-nature-we-are-of/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“Great questions are a much better indicator of future success than great answers.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/great-questions-are-a-much-better-indicator-of-future-success-than/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

> [“Georgi Plekhanov’s classic On the Role of the Individual in History.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/georgi-plekhanov-s-classic-on-the-role-of-the-individual-in-history/)

[Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/)

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                        "text": "When you're faced with a choice, you have one of three choices that you can have. You can have those with power decide. You can have one man, one vote. Or you can have believability-weighted decision-making.",
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                        "text": "“have found triangulating with highly believable people who are willing to have thoughtful disagreements has never failed to enhance my learning and sharpen the quality of my decision making.”",
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                        "text": "“I believe one of the most valuable things you can do to improve your decision making is to think through your principles for making decisions, write them out in both words and computer algorithms, back-test them if possible, and use them on a real-time basis to run in parallel with your brain’s decision making.”",
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                        "text": "“Every leader must decide between 1) getting rid of liked but incapable people to achieve their goals and 2) keeping the nice but incapable people and not achieving their goals. Whether or not you can make these hard decisions is the strongest determinant of your own success”",
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                        "text": "“Learning how to make decisions in the best possible way and learning to have the courage to make them comes from a) going after what you want, b) failing and reflecting well through radical open-mindedness, and c) changing/evolving to become ever more capable and less fearful. In the final chapter of this section, Learn How to Make Decisions Effectively, I shared some more granular principles for how to do all of the above and weigh your options in specific situations to determine the right path to follow.”",
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                        "text": "“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.”",
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                        "text": "“Specifying our investment decision-making criteria in algorithms and running historical data through them, or specifying our work principles in algorithms and using them to aid in management decision making, are just bigger and more complicated versions of that smart thermostat.”",
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                        "text": "“By developing a partnership with your computer alter ego in which you teach each other and each do what you do best, you will be much more powerful than if you went about your decision making alone. The computer will also be your link to great collective decision making, which is far more powerful than individual decision making, and will almost certainly advance the evolution of our species.”",
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                        "@type": "Quotation",
                        "text": "“An idea meritocracy requires people to do three things: 1) Put their honest thoughts on the table for everyone to see, 2) Have thoughtful disagreements where there are quality back-and-forths in which people evolve their thinking to come up with the best collective answers possible, and 3) Abide by idea-meritocratic ways of getting past the remaining disagreements (such as believability-weighted decision making).”",
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                        "@type": "Quotation",
                        "text": "“It’ll be decades—and maybe never—before the computer can replicate many of the things that the brain can do in terms of imagination, synthesis, and creativity. That’s because the brain comes genetically programmed with millions of years of abilities honed through evolution. The “science” of decision making that underlies many computer systems remains much less valuable than the “art.”",
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                        "text": "To have an idea meritocracy, one needs to do three things. First, they have to put their honest thoughts on the table, for everyone to look at and everyone to work through. Second, they need to have thoughtful disagreement, by which there are quality exchanges, in which there's open mindedness and the realization that no one has all the right answers. And you can work through that and get to better answers because good collective decision making is better than any individual decision making. And third, you have to have ways of getting past the disagreements if they remain.",
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                        "text": "“I believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot and fail well. By failing well, I mean being able to experience painful failures that provide big learnings without failing badly enough to get knocked out of the game. This way of learning and improving has been best for me because of what I’m like and because of what I do. I’ve always had a bad rote memory and didn’t like following other people’s instructions, but I loved figuring out how things work for myself. I hated school because of my bad memory but when I was twelve I fell in love with trading the markets. To make money in the markets, one needs to be an independent thinker who bets against the consensus and is right. That’s because the consensus view is baked into the price. One is inevitably going to be painfully wrong a lot, so knowing how to do that well is critical to one’s success. To be a successful entrepreneur, the same is true: One also has to be an independent thinker who correctly bets against the consensus, which means being painfully wrong a fair amount. Since I was both an investor and an entrepreneur, I developed a healthy fear of being wrong and figured out an approach to decision making that would maximize my odds of being right.”",
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                        "text": "“The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots.”",
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                        "text": "“Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions,”",
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                        "text": "“Bad outcomes don’t just happen; they occur because specific people make, or fail to make, specific decisions”",
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